Navy Midshipmen (6-5) vs. Army Black Knights (4-7) – Against the Spread Pick
BETTING LINE: Navy -15 O/U 57
Last Game: Navy won their 2nd straight beating South Alabama 42-40 and Army beat Fordham 42-31.
ATS PICK: Navy is giving 15 points in this big rivalry game where the winner is awarded the Thomson Cup. Still, even though the game is being held at a neutral site Navy is the ESPN Pick for this game. Both teams have a great rushing offense, but the Midshipmen are the Fox Sports Pick for Navy vs. Army game, as they have played a tougher schedule.
To say Navy has had Army’s number over the last decade would be an understatement. The longest winning streak in this rivalry game, which dates back to 1890, is 12 straight and that streak is going on right now, as Navy has not lost to Army since the 2001 season.
I mentioned that Navy has played the tougher schedule and that is key in this game. Navy has played 2 ranked teams this season losing to Notre Dame 49-39 and Ohio State 34-17. They did lose by 10 points in each, but neither game was a major blowout and they covered the spread in the Notre Dame game. On the other side of the coin Army only faced one ranked team this season in Stanford and they lost that game 35-0.
Army won and covered the spread in their last game, but in their last 26 games after an ATS win they have only covered the spread 6 times. Also, Navy has covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win.
In the win over Fordham Army gave up 470 total yards. They are only 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after giving up more than 450 yards in their previous game.
Not only has Navy dominated Army for the last 12 seasons, but the favorite has covered the spread in 9 of the last 13 games between these 2 teams, which is another reason Army is the ESPN Pick for this game.
This game is all about the run, as Navy ranks 2nd in the nation in rushing yards per game and Army ranks 6th. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds has rushed for over 250 yards in 2 of his last 4 games. Army rushed for 382 yards in their win over Fordham, but they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game.
CBS Sports Picks may point to the Over being the bet in this game looking at each teams recent trends. The total has gone Over in Army’s last 5 games and Over in Navy’s last 4 games. However, in the last 8 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under every time.
Won big last week taking Alabama to win and cover, which they easily did, so take Navy in this game to pad the old bankroll.
Betting Records and Betting Trends
ATS – O/U Records:
Navy: 5-6 ATS / O/U 4-6
Army: 4-7 ATS / O/U 7-4
6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win
Over is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall
3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall
15-36 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. win
Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall
Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings
Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings